Wednesday 23 January 2013

Sitting on the sidelines

Although i'm trying not to time the market, i'm currently suffering from a bit of inertia following the recent market rally.  Things that looked cheap a couple of months back now look a bit more fairly valued, which has narrowed the range of investment options i find attractive.

Bond yields are falling, even those with more questionable credit quality. There is also a real risk of capital loss unless tenors are kept short (which reduces yields further).

Equity valuations are broadly at a level i'd consider to be par, or fair value. Certainly nothing is jumping out to me as being dramatically undervalued at a country / regional level.

Looking at the mix of my ETF portfolio, i have reasonable emerging markets, UK & European exposure, and to a lesser extent Hong Kong. Where i think i'm lacking is exposure to North America, small caps, and broader Asian markets (incl China).  Industry wise, the high dividend nature of  my portfolio tends to favour financials, utilities and property. I could probably do with some more consumer based names and possibly industrial or infrastructure.

I think i'll see how the next couple of weeks play out in terms of broader economic sentiment. If we are just taking a pause, its probably a good thing given the past couple of months and i'll just continue with my asset accumulation plans.  If we see a pull back, its even better from a long term investment perspective.


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