December 2012 Review

December saw my net worth increase by 1.5%, with good savings and increases investment / pension valuations.


During the month my ETF investments all increased in value, and i also received a couple of large dividends. I purchased a European high dividend ETF during the month which has had a great run, increasing over 5% in value in just over 2 weeks!  These ETF gains were partly offset by the recent fall in gold.

My pensions had their best month since February with solid increases in unit values as equities rallied.

My property was occupied, although there was one minor maintenance issue that should come through in January.  I've left the valuation unchanged for a number of months now as the market has been fairly flat.

Cash increased despite the ETF investment and higher Christmas expenses, although i expect some extra expenses to come through in January.

On a full year basis, my net worth has increased by a very satisfying 41%, mostly from healthy income & savings, but also helped along by higher property, pension & investment valuations.  I'll do a separate full year 2012 annual review in January.

Passive income

A recent addition to my financial management spreadsheet is the monitoring and forecasting of passive income.

This represents the income my assets yield from me sitting back and doing nothing, whether in the form of rental income, dividends or interest.  By monitoring both my asset allocation along with the average yield on each asset class, it will help me to focus on portfolio optimisation, and finding the best return for my risk appetite.

What stands out straight away is the difference in yield on my different assets.  My property is generating the highest regular income, at close to 5% against the current property valuation. Its a little early to have a good feeling about the average yield on my ETFs but i expect this to be at least 4% from dividends if not higher.  My cash or near cash assets are earning just under 2% on average, which is reasonable given the current zero interest rate environment, but is below inflation and really re-emphasises my objective to reduce cash balances over the coming months.

My short term aim is to reinvest all surplus income into further asset accumulation (and thus further grow passive income).

My long term aim is to use passive income to remove my dependence on employment income, allowing much greater freedom in my employment and lifestyle decisions in the future.

2012 Investment performance

Since October i've started to build a portfolio of ETFs, primarily but not exclusively focusing on dividend stocks. I've also bought some gold in non-physical form through my HK bank.  Here's my current portfolio and how it has performed in the past couple of months:

Name		Return	% Assets
SEDY		4.4%	1.05%
IASP		4.0%	1.05%
SHYU		0.9%	1.05%
IUKD		5.3%	1.07%
IDVY		3.4%	0.64%
GOLD		-1.4%	1.01%

The return figure is inclusive of both dividends and valuation gains.  SEDY (emerging markets), IASP (asian property) and IUKD (uk high dividend) have all paid dividends in either November or December which has boosted the return in the short period of time i've been holding these.  IDVY (euro high dividend) has had a good week, rallying 3.4% in the week since it was purchased.

Gold has lagged a bit.  Fears around europe and the fiscal cliff seem to have eased recently, which can be seen in the increase in equities and risk currencies.

Going forward i'll measure investment returns using a CAGR (Compound annual growth rate) formula, which factors in the timing of cashflows such as purchases & dividends to generate an annualised return.  For those excel fans its the 'XIRR' function!  I haven't shown it here as the numbers are a bit meaningless given the short period of time i've held these investments.

The % Assets represents my total assets rather than just the investment portfolio. You'll see my default target holding for now has been 1% of total assets per investment, which over time will be varied up or down depending on my comfort with the investment, and the overall degree of diversification i'm aiming for.

I will be looking to build up this portfolio over the coming year, primarily targeting high yield investments & ETFs listed in the UK or HK.

Falling rates

One of the unfortunate side effects of the latest round of central bank interest rate & QE announcements seems to have been another round of savings rate cuts both for existing variable rate accounts & potential new fixed rate time deposits.

It is becoming quite a mission to hunt down an lock in decent interest rates. I'm not keen on long term fixed rate accounts beyond a year or two, and many variable rates have fallen quite sharply in the last two months or so.

In an attempt to build a respectable yield i've been flirting with the idea of moving more cash into corporate debt ETFs.  Its really a case of weighing up the transaction cost and credit risk against the difference in yield, but i'm increasingly finding that my desire for yield is starting to overcome my natural risk aversion.

2012 Pension performance

Across December and January i'll do a few annual reviews of my major asset groups, starting with my work pensions.

I currently hold one old (now frozen) and one current (regular monthly contributions) defined contribution pension schemes. The old one is 100% global equities, the current one is around 80% global equities, 20% bonds.

After stripping out both employer & employee contributions in 2012, the combined value of the 2 schemes has increased by around 12.6%, up to the middle of December.  Normally i'd be quite happy with this level of return, but i've had a feeling for some time these schemes have been under-performing the major global indices.

In light of this i thought i'd do a quick spot check of the US, UK, HK & Eurostoxx indices' YTD performance to see how my pensions have performed:

UK  up 6.4%
US  up 12.8%
EUR up 12.8%
HK  up 21%

The results are better than i thought, with my pensions performing broadly in line with the major equities indices.  I do have the ability to vary both the asset allocation, and also to some extent the geographic composition of the schemes, and i plan to critically review and more actively manage these variables in 2013 where i feel changes are appropriate.

IDVY.L Purchased

Today i purchased IDVY.L at around 1215p

This is an ETF tracking an index of high yielding eurozone stocks. It is made up of 30 companies, covering financials, telecoms, industrials & consumer industries.  Whilst i'm a little uncomfortable with some of the Spanish & Italian names, more than two-thirds of the geographical exposure is to Germany, France, Netherlands & Belgium.

The fundamentals were the main attraction, with a PE of around 10 and a dividend yield over 6%, although i decided to go for a smaller than average position due to these extra risks.

I decided to buy today seeing the index down 1.5% following news of political turnover in Italy, although i've been following this ETF for a few months now.

Net worth tracking

I've been tracking my net worth since 2008, having originally started to monitor when i had sufficient cash saved to put towards a deposit on a home.  Over the last few years it has become a lot more sophisticated, including forward looking long term forecasts as well as the historic trend.

I do everything in excel. I like its flexibility and a lot of the personal finance software available seems focused primarily on the US market.

More recently i've started to model retirement scenarios, monitor objectives (for example trying to reduce my low yielding cash balances), place more focus on investment returns and monitor income & expenses in more detail.

Looking back, it is pleasing to see a steady positive trend, which is largely a reflection of both a low risk asset allocation and no major life expenses to put a dent in it along the way. In particular the last couple of years have seen its growth accelerate as income increased at a faster rate than expenses. Hopefully this trend will continue!

November 2012 Review

November saw my net worth increase by 1.2%, with good savings and positive investment returns.

During the month my investments in ETFs increased in value, with one also paying a dividend. I purchased another ETF during the month tracking high dividend paying UK shares which ended the month well. My holdings in gold had a volatile few weeks but ended marginally higher too.

My pensions increased with regular monthly contributions and higher unit values, in line with equities markets.

My property was occupied with no issues.

Cash was broadly flat, with a good savings rate offset by an ETF investment and payment of my annual gym membership.  I also realised i'd slightly under-accrued my tax liability due for payment in January, so topped it up this month.

On a year to date basis, my net worth has increased by just over 39%, mostly from healthy income & savings.

Investing in foreign currencies

A lot of my friends and colleagues are expats, typically with currency exposure between Hong Kong dollars and their home currency. Some may have financial commitments in multiple currencies, others may be planning to retire in a different country. 

What has surprised me is that as retail investors, a number of people are actively using exchange rate movements as a means of investment, either in the form of direct buying/selling of currencies or through products such as foreign currency linked structured deposits.

Up to now i haven't been actively considering fx as a means of investment, other than looking to opportunistically exchange money when rates move in my favour.  This is mainly because i don't want to get stuck on the wrong side of a transaction with a currency that i don't want or need. However, to the extent i'm indifferent between holding two currencies, there's no real reason why i shouldn't apply the basic investing rules of looking for value & buying low and selling high to the fx markets.

I don't anticipate this to be a significant part of my portfolio, but where opportunities arise i might look to take small fx positions from within my cash buffer.

Expenses: Initial review

For the first time in many years, i've trawled through my bank statements and done a simple review of my monthly expenses for the past 3 months.

Whilst it is too short a time period to draw too many conclusions (i couldn't be bothered going back further but will update each month going forward), it did highlight a few key points:

- Overall, total spending was broadly in line with what i had been accruing in my forecasts;
- Bills were as expected, a little higher over summer but should be lower over winter now the air-con is off;
- I'm probably spending too much on food & drink. I'll keep an eye on this going forward but its more of a concern for fitness & health at this stage!
- I'm not spending much on myself, in terms of entertainment, clothes, luxuries etc. This is probably a sign that i'm not getting the work/life balance right at the moment, and certainly not making the most of my time outside work.

Overall, i found this a useful exercise and will keep it going. Whilst i haven't gone down to the full granular details (i've made no attempt to break down cash from ATM for instance, focusing only on larger & individually identifiable items), it has given me a basis to better plan and monitor spending going forward.

IUKD.L purchased

Today i purchased IUKD.L at around 727p.

This is an ETF tracking the FTSE UK Dividend+ Index, made up of the top 50 yielding equities in the FTSE350.  This is intended to be a long term hold, with an approximate dividend yield of 5.2% and a PE of around 11. The current stocks included in the index include insurance, utilities & consumer services so its fairly well diversified.  The price has dropped around 3.5% in the last week since the US election.

I'm looking to build up a well diversified investment portfolio of ETFs with a focus on yield.  I'll periodically provide updates on my investment portfolio and its performance, separately to the regular month-end reviews.

Market timing v Fundamentals

Traditionally i've tended to buy into falling markets that have then continued to fall (the classic attempt to catch a falling knife).

I'm looking to increase my equities holdings at the moment and i'm making a conscious effort to wait for a good entry point, in anticipation of market weakness over the coming weeks.  In saying that, given that i plan to hold and accumulate assets, i will try to adapt my mindset focusing less on short term timing and more on the fundamentals of the investment.

When facing a period of market uncertainty, i like the idea of building positions. This gives the flexibility to reduce the average entry cost in a falling market, and the ability to more fully commit should confidence and strength return.

My thoughts on asset classes (4: Others)

I won't try to cover everything here, just a few of the more obvious choices for now.

Commodities:
I'm generally not a big fan of investing in commodities. The markets seem more volatile and don't offer income, and to me just feel more speculative or short term in nature. However, i wouldn't rule them out if i have a strong feeling on valuation.  In particular, i personally find it easier to think about the inherent value in energies and metals as opposed to food products etc, and often keep an eye on the price of oil which as a finite resource that most people depend on, i expect will increase in the long run.

Recently i've also been paying more attention to gold (including buying a small amount). This is primarily a result of QE, debt and inflation which i expect to weaken the USD over time.  I also keep an eye on silver, which has a lot more commercial uses than gold but is also a lot more volatile.

Bonds:
Apart from some corporate debt, the general lack of yield puts me off at the moment. Saying that i'll probably return to these over the coming years.  For now, if i can get higher yield on cash without the credit risk, i'll probably take that.  If not, i may allocate a small percentage of assets to higher yielding bonds.

Personal inflation rate

One thing i've often noticed but have never bothered to actively monitor is the real rate of inflation i face in the everyday items i purchase. This has been particularly noticeable living in HK where i'm sure lifestyle makes a big difference to the actual rate of inflation experienced, which is probably very different to the official rate.

I'm not particularly interested in logging day to day expenses or making note of prices, but i think it would be a useful exercise to look at  a trend of monthly expenses over a few years, and to periodically categorise the types of expense. This will help to highlight any change in mix, and any areas of growth that i might not realise to be growing.

I'm not really looking to reduce spending at the stage, but would like to better understand what i spend and how this changes over time.

My thoughts on asset classes (3: Equities)

This is probably the asset class i've had the least experience or success with, although history suggests its a good long term way of building wealth.

I've been passively holding equities in pension funds for the past 8 years, but haven't been particularly active in the markets other than that, apart from a few short-term speculative positions.  The advantages are fairly clear, with both capital gains & yields available that have the potential to exceed anything possible in bonds or cash. The downsides include volatility, the risk of corporate failures or under-performance, and given the volatility of the last decade, the need for a strong stomach and cool head.

I think managing a portfolio of directly held individual equities takes a lot of time & research to do well. This is why ETFs appeal to me, offering diversification and market targeting, with relatively low costs.  I have recently started building positions in a few different ETFs.  

Similarly to property, i also view equities as a good means of protection against inflation, and a potential source of income in retirement.  I expect Property & Equities to form the basis of the my investment plans for the coming years.

Hoping for some risk off..

Now the US election has passed, i can't help thinking market focus will return to two main areas over the coming weeks, the ongoing eurozone problems and the impending US fiscal cliff.

My personal views are that europe will continue exactly how it has over the past few years, muddling through with no significant change in policy or approach.  For the US, my prediction is a similar scenario to the last debt ceiling debate, ie brinkmanship with a last minute deal to kick the can down the line for another few years.

In my view, both are likely to result in negative sentiment in the markets over the coming weeks.  Whilst i'm looking to start increasing my rate of investment i'll be cautious for now, paying close attention to the markets and looking for dips and buying opportunities.

October 2012 Review

I'll do a series of regular monthly reviews, to monitor my investment performance and track the trend of my net worth.

October saw my net worth increase by 1.2%, mostly from a high savings rate.

During the month i purchased 3 ETFs. These were:
- SEDY.L - emerging markets high dividend equities. This should return solid dividends with what i perceive to be greater long term growth potential than the traditional developed markets.
- IASP.L - asian property yield equities. Should offer a decent dividend and many of the companies in the ETF are reasonably valued.  I am slightly concerned about the recent property cooling measures announced in HK, but the fund is geographically diversified, also including Singapore & Australian companies.
- SHYU.L - high yield corporate debt - should return a yield of over 6%, made up of hundreds of individual debt issuances to minimise default risk.
Each holding represents around 1% of total assets. The focus is primarily on yield, but i hope the first two will offer capital appreciation over time.  Performance was broadly flat up to the month end.

I also purchased some notional gold (treated almost like a currency by the local banks, but backed up by physical gold), again about 1% of total assets.

My pensions increased with monthly contributions, partly offset by a marginal drop in unit values.

My property was occupied with no issues. The property valuation was fairly flat - periodically i'll look at the local market & conservatively update this (including it in my net worth calculation).

Cash fell overall as a result of the above investments during the month, but excluding the impact of these, it increased with a good savings rate.

On a year to date basis, my net worth has increased by around 38%, again mainly from healthy income & savings.

My thoughts on asset classes (2: Property)

Based on my experiences to date, i'm quite positive about the benefits of property as an investment. The main benefits i see are:
- The potential for generating both yield and capital gains.
- The ability to protect against general inflation.  I would normally expect the value of property and/or rents to rise in an inflationary environment, although i'm sure there are many examples where this hasn't been the case.
- Protecting against future property price rises (if you have the need to buy a home in the future). Getting on the property ladder early can help manage a future risk that values might spike up when a future purchase is desired.
 However, there are also some downsides:
- High transaction costs, such as taxes, agency/legal fees
- High entry price. Generally a large financial commitment is needed, with accompanying debt.
- The risks of vacancy, problem tenants, or maintenance costs.

For me, similar to any other investment, the decision to invest in property would ultimately come down to price, value and research.  Priorities would be to minimise the chance of vacancy (sensible location & rent levels), and  aim for positive cash flows, with rental yields exceeding financing costs. The HK property market isn't particularly attractive at the moment with high valuations, low yields & recent government cooling measures including high purchase taxes.  I may consider investments in the future though.

Gold purchased

I topped up my holding of paper gold this morning, following its large fall on Friday.  The amounts are not significant but i still think its destined to move higher & saw this as a buying opportunity.  I think we'll see some volatility over the next few days as the election result starts to emerge.  My average purchase price is just over $1700 so i'm a little bit down overall so far.

My thoughts on asset classes (1: Cash)

I wanted to summarise my thoughts & experiences on the asset classes i generally invest in or actively  consider. I'll start with Cash, and work through the others in separate posts.

In years gone by, i've viewed cash as a risk free source of generating income, through interest.  I remember  having access to 5-6% savings accounts, and not really spending too much time thinking about alternative investments due to the easy return this offered.  Those days are long gone now, and my opinions have changed a lot in the last year in particular.  I now generally view cash as a backstop, or buffer to protect me against any unforseen expenses, or loss of earnings.

However, in a low interest rate environment, this buffer comes at a cost, being both an opportunity cost of not investing in products offering a better return, but of greater concern to me is the cost of inflation, and its ability to erode the value of cash over time.

Whilst i try to find what yield exists in the market for savings accounts, it is difficult to generate above inflation returns at the moment, without jeopardising the effectiveness of the safety net cash is held for. As such, my current view is to hold enough cash to conservatively cover any potential emergencies, but to not leave excess funds idle & uninvested. A priority for the coming year will be to better manage the proportion of my assets left in cash.

My investment history

I'd describe my investment performance over the past 5 years as mixed.

First, the good bits:
Purchasing a property at the bottom of the market in 2009 was comfortably the best financial decision i have made. This has generated good capital gains (as yet unrealised), along with consistently high rental returns after i moved out.

And now the bad bits:
My investments in equities have tended to be impulsive, lacking strategy or sufficient analysis. A couple of ill timed investments before 2008 disappeared to almost nothing.   The investments i made near the lows in 2008 were sold far too early (for example buying a FTSE100 tracker close to 3800 and selling at 4200!). I've also had a tendency to over-commit to positions, rather than building positions & reaping the benefits of averaging should markets decline.  I had a bad experience of placing too much cash in an Indian equities tracking ETF, which subsequently declined rapidly in value. Instead of buying more at a cheaper price, i realised i needed some of the cash and ended up selling the position at a material loss, only to see the value go back up a few months after.

I think the biggest problem i've had to date has been my investment time horizon, thinking of equity investments more as a day trade, or a potential quick profit.  I plan going forward to purchase and accumulate, only selling if my opinion on the fundamentals of the investment changes significantly.

Financial Objectives

I thought it would be sensible from the beginning to set some objectives for what i'd like to achieve. I'll start out with some broad objectives, and add or refine them as my thoughts evolve. I'll organise these in terms of short term (over the next year), medium term (over the next 2-10 years), and long term (looking towards retirement). I'll look to review and update these at least annually.

Short term:
To reduce the cash portion of my asset portfolio to under 20% of total assets, from the starting 29%.
I think this is a conservative target, but there's still a lot of economic uncertainty around and i would prefer to gradually re-balance rather than fully committing to the markets from day 1.

Medium term:
I'd like to maintain a portfolio balance of at least 80:20, with at least 80% of assets invested in a combination of property, equities (including pension funds) or alternatives, leaving a maximum of 20% in cash.
The focus will be on asset accumulation and diversification. My current preference is for yielding investments (for example dividend paying equities, investment properties), which should hopefully be able to generate positive returns in strong or weak markets.

Long term:
I hope to be in a position to comfortably retire before the age of 50. The idea of retiring early is currently quite appealing, but i appreciate its still a long way away. I'd at least like to get myself into a position where this would be possible if i still feel the same in another 10-15 years.

Key to achieving all objectives will be to maintain or improve on cash flow generated from employment, unless i get lucky in a lottery!

My asset allocation

This is a breakdown of my current asset allocation:

Property 52% - a previous home now rented out. I've been lucky to have minimal vacancy and a good regular rental yield for the past couple of years.

Pensions 15% - a couple of defined contribution pension funds, being contributed to monthly by myself and my employer.  The asset allocation within the funds is probably around 90% global equities, 10% bonds.  This is one area i know i need to analyse further, having not paid much attention to it over the past few years.

Direct Investments 4% - after a couple of years away from the stock market, i've recently purchased some exchange traded funds, along with a small amount of gold (of the paper variety).  I'll go into more details on what i'm holding and why in a seperate post.

Cash 29% - i'm holding way too much of my resources in cash.  Whilst i like to think i've done a good job in finding what cash yield still exists in the markets, i'm barely keeping up with inflation. I'm looking to start managing this percentage down.

Some background information

I'm an early 30's male living & working in Hong Kong.  I have no family of my own, so i'm financially independant at this stage in my life.

I have a keen interest in economics and financial markets, and a vested interest in making sure my own finances perform to their full potential.  I'm naturally risk-averse (and we'll explore the advantages and challenges this presents in future posts) but a combination of low & negative real interest rates and expectations of continued inflation are making me more inclined to explore a wider range of investment options.

This blog was inspired after accidentally stumbling across the world of personal finance blogs. Reading the stories and plans of others made me realise that (a) i was drifting along with no real financial goals & objectives, and (b) the decisions i make now will greatly affect my future.   Whilst i appreciate this is all common sense, sometimes you just need a moment of realisation!

My first blog

Welcome to My Investment Blog!

After drifting along financially for my first 10 years in full time employment, I've decided to share my financial expreiences with anyone who cares to read it.  My reasons for blogging are twofold:
1) To focus my mind - i'm hoping that by setting goals, sharing my thoughts & actions, and tracking progress, it will encourage me to think rationally before making decisions;

2) To give me something tangible to look back on and see where i got it right or wrong - hindsight is a wonderful thing!